GoTycheThe 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has soared 18 basis points on Wednesday to its highest level since 2007.
Bitcoin trading at $84,400 as Nasdaq sheds 1.15% amid rout in bond market
Sharply higher rates across the U.S. yield curve helped to send markets lower on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq losing 1.15% and S&P 500 0.7%.
Bitcoin was trading at $84,400 shortly after U.S. stocks closed, down 2.2% over the past 24 hours.
Among crypto-related stocks, Strategy (MSTR) slid 3.1%, Coinbase (COIN) fell 1.5%, and Circle (CRCL) slipped 3%.
One sector moving higher on Wednesday was energy, as oil reversed a multi-day slide to gain 2.5%. The State Street Energy Select SPDR (XLE) rose 1%.
Treasury in a trap: Macro watchers comment as U.S. bond yields blow out
“The challenge the U.S. Treasury currently faces is a collapse of investors willing to accept current yields in the face of both structural debasement of the underlying dollar and the expected supply that the Treasury itself will continue to dump on the market,” wrote Strive (ASST) board member James Lavish as the 10-year yield jumped 18 basis points Wednesday to its highest level in more than 19 years.
“The problem is, the higher yields go, the more bonds the Treasury will need to sell,” he continued. “If they step in to buy the bonds themselves, this creates further debasement, only exacerbating the self-reinforcing loop.”
“The Fed raises the price of money to suppress inflation while the Treasury must borrow more money partly because the price of money went up,” said Grain of Salt, calling current conditions a “trap nobody can make disappear.”
“We built a debt structure where the medicine used to fight inflation [higher rates] increasingly aggravates the fiscal disease.”
“At some point, stock market investors will have to take notice of this development, not just the current level, but the powerful trend that will likely send the yield significantly higher from here,” said Peter Schiff. “This is bad news for stocks and the economy.”
“This is unsustainable,” wrote Lukas Ekwueme.
“Contrary to the mainstream narrative, higher rates are inflationary when you're sitting on $40 trillion in debt and running $2 trillion deficits,” he continued.
“Higher rates = higher interest expenses = larger deficits = more money printing needed. The path toward lower rates via yield curve control is getting clearer by the day. We don't own enough gold for what's coming.”
White House prepping diesel export ban: Politico
Oil and gasoline prices are sharply higher on Wednesday, but heating oil prices are tumbling after Politico reported the Trump administration as prepping a plan to ban diesel fuel (essentially the same as heating oil) exports for 90 days.
The energy industry is fully against such a ban, as are some in the administration.
The midterm elections, though, are less than two months away.
Heating oil for October delivery is lower by 4.5% to $4.71 per gallon. WTI crude oil is higher by 1.25%, and October gasoline is up 2.7%.
Crypto may be entering ‘spring’ as ETFs took in $2 billion this week, 21Shares co-founder says
Crypto’s recent rally could have staying power, according to 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, who pointed to signs that the market is entering what she calls “Crypto Spring.”
Snyder cited lower oil prices, gains in technology stocks, recent SEC guidance and growing demand for crypto ETFs as factors supporting the rebound. She views persistent ETF demand as the key signal to watch for whether momentum can continue.
The latest downturn has also been relatively short, lasting about nine months, according to Snyder. She contrasted that with previous crypto bear markets, including the prolonged slump following FTX’s collapse, while noting that greater public scrutiny can now amplify shifts in sentiment.
Spot bitcoin ETFs took in over $2 billion this week as bitcoin’s price rose above $87,000 at one point, now holding around $84,000.
Yield blowout is worst one-day move since Trump's Liberation Day tariffs
The bond market selloff is accelerating in mid-afternoon action, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield now higher by 18.5 basis points to 5.127%, the highest level since 2007.
The two-year yield is up 15.4 basis points to 4.931%, with October rate hike expectations now at 73.1% versus about 50% just one day ago.
The move in the 10-year yield is the largest since the immediate aftermath of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements in April 2025, according to Schwab’s Kevin Gordon.
Most disturbing, perhaps, is that there doesn’t appear to be any news behind today’s crash. Yes, oil prices are modestly higher, and yes, there was some strong economic news, and yes, there was a weakish auction of U.S. five-year paper, but none of those really explain the selling.
The Nasdaq is down 1.3% and the S&P 500 is off 0.8%. Bitcoin has retreated to $84,000, down 2.8% over the past 24 hours.
Sustained inflation in U.S. a relatively recent phenomenon, says one researcher
With McDonald’s (MCD) — its stores and its customers pressured by the ever-rising price level — tumbling another 5.5% on its Investor Day and now down 22% year-to-date, it’s worth considering how little cumulative inflation there was in the U.S. until relatively recently.
From 1800 to 1940, inflation averaged just 0.2% per year, according to Ben Carlson. That means, he continued, the cost of living was only 28% higher in 1940 than it was 140 years earlier.
That’s an amazing stat considering the cost of French fries at McDonald’s has roughly doubled in just the last six years.
It’s not to say there was never inflation in the U.S. from 1800 to 1940 … there was. What was different during that period was numerous bouts of deflation, which allowed prices to return to previous levels.
“The scale of theft via debasement over the last 86 years is unfathomable,” wrote Bitcoiner Marty Bent.
Risk assets do better after Fed rate hike then after rate cut, says analyst
“Narrative violation,” wrote Phil Rosen, chief market strategist at Anthony Pompliano’s Silvia (formerly ProCap Financial).
Since 1982, noted Rosen, the S&P 500 has averaged a 14.9% return in the one year following a Fed rate hike. That’s 370 basis points higher than the 11.2% average return following a Fed rate cut.
Taken in that context, the rally in bitcoin and other cryptos since last week’s Fed rate hike makes quite a bit more sense. It’s almost as if markets anticipate, and the pressure on crypto throughout 2026 was investors pricing in tighter than otherwise assumed monetary policy.
With that out of the way, the path to higher prices is now cleared.
Crypto losses grow as interest rates soar, Nasdaq sinks 1%
Holding to only modest losses throughout the morning, crypto prices have turned decidedly lower in the past few minutes.
Bitcoin (BTC) is now down 2.25% over the past 24 hours and below $84,000. Ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) are each down closer to 3%.
The Nasdaq is now off by 1.15%, led by 2%+ declines for Google, Broadcom, and Amazon.
Putting pressure on risk markets are soaring global interest rates. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is up 11 basis points to an almost 20-year high of 5.06%. German 10-year Bund yields are up 8 basis points to 3.53%, and 10-year yields in Spain and Italy are higher by 12 basis points.
Nuclear issue won't be solved on battlefield: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
Addressing the United Nations General Assembly one day after President Trump, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country has the right to develop nuclear technology.
The nuclear issue, he said, won’t be solved on the battlefield, and expanding the war won’t bring security.
Oil is trading near session highs, WTI crude up 1.7% to $92.10 per barrel.
Bitwise index surges to 90%, signaling potential start of new altseason
Bitwise’s Altseason Index reached 90% this week, meaning nine in 10 tracked altcoins outperformed bitcoin over the past seven days and signaling the altseason has begun, according to the asset manager’s latest Crypto Market Compass.
The index also showed 65% of tracked tokens beat bitcoin over the past month, a reading Bitwise said has historically coincided with continued short- to medium-term outperformance by major altcoins.
Ethereum, Solana, Zcash and Hyperliquid were among the stronger performers, while altcoin exchange-traded products excluding ether attracted about $166 million, their largest weekly inflow of the year, Bitwise said. Delphi Digital separately said 82% of the altcoins on its sector dashboard ended the month higher, with all 10 sectors posting positive average returns. In its X post, it asked: “Could the altseason be back?”
Interest rates and the dollar are flying higher, pressuring markets
It’s new cycle highs across the U.S. yield curve on Wednesday as oil bounces following several days of declines and the economic data continues to come in strong.
Normally not that closely followed, but making some noise today, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 57 in September from 53.9 previously, and against forecasts for a small dip to 53.5.
The S&P Global Services PMI rose to 58.7 from 56.5 and versus estimates for 56.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has popped higher by a whopping 9.4 basis points to 5.042%. The two-year yield — which would be more closely tied to Fed monetary policy — is up 5.6 basis points to 4.833%.
The U.S dollar index is higher by 0.4% (a large move for that gauge) to its strongest level since late July.
About thirty minutes into the trading day, the Nasdaq is down 0.55%. Bitcoin is at $85,800, down 0.55% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin approaches Friday’s $18 billion quarterly options expiry
Bitcoin approaches Friday’s $18 billion quarterly options expiry around $85,000.
Bitcoin has gained roughly 8% in September and just under 50% for the third quarter.
Bullish call positioning and dealer hedging has helped fuel the rally, but those flows could fade after Friday’s settlement, potentially increasing short-term volatility as traders roll exposure into October and December, towards year-end.
Oil swings from loss to gain, with bitcoin slipping to $85,500
WTI crude oil has rallied more than $2 per barrel from session lows — much of the move coming in the last few minutes. It’s now up 0.5% for the day at $90.93 per barrel.
There’s no particular news, though the WSJ reports that U.S. oil executives — who thought they had convinced the Trump administration not to impose a diesel fuel export ban — now aren’t so sure after the president’s comments on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting yesterday.
The move in oil has helped push the U.S. two-year Treasury yield to a new cycle high at 4.79%, with odds of an October Fed rate hike rising to more than 53%.
Bitcoin has slipped to a session low of $85,500.
Bitcoin wallet owner migrates 600 BTC worth $52M for first time since 2012
A wallet holding 600 bitcoin that had not moved since July 2012 transferred the coins, worth about $51.9 million, to a new address on Monday, according to onchain data flagged by Galaxy Research via an X post on Tuesday. The bitcoin holding was received more than 14 years ago, when it was worth roughly $8 token.
The move appears to be a wallet migration from a legacy bitcoin address to a Native SegWit wallet, suggesting the owner is undertaking a long-term migration or consolidation rather than a liquidation. The coins were not sent to a known exchange address, and the recipient remains unidentified. Other long-dormant wallets were recently moved by Satoshi-era holders without using exchanges, thereby limiting evidence of immediate selling pressure.
BCH surges 28% after CME says it will list futures on the token
Bitcoin Cash jumped 28% to nearly $349 over 24 hours, the largest move among sizeable tokens, after CME Group said on Monday it will list Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures from Oct. 19.
Futures on a regulated U.S. exchange give funds a way to take a position without holding the coin, which matters for institutions whose mandates bar them from custodying crypto directly. It also gives market makers a hedging venue, which usually tightens spot pricing.
Bitcoin itself is trading around $85,800, down under 1% over 24 hours after matching Monday's intraday high near $87,300 and meeting the same selling into it. ZEC rose 9% to just above $1,646 and XRP 3% to nearly $1.59, while TRX fell 2%.
"Optimism in the altcoin market and in equities suggests that we are witnessing a temporary shift of speculative capital from the leading cryptocurrency into altcoins," Alex Kuptsikevich, senior analyst at FxPro, said in an email to CoinDesk. "Many investors had parked their cryptocurrency-allocated capital in the most liquid asset class and are now seeking more profitable opportunities."
"In such situations, there has previously been a slowdown but not a reversal in BTC, as price pullbacks have attracted new buyers who had previously kept their money out of the risky crypto market," he added.
On BCH specifically, the note pointed out the token has only climbed back to levels last seen in the second half of May, after reversing near $660 in early January and falling to $190.
A continued bid would put $450 in range, where buyers were active between October 2025 and this May.